The Deutsche Bank survey shows a pessimistic outlook for the price of Bitcoin, with 33% expecting it to fall below $20,000 by 2024, while 15% expect it to stabilize between $40,000 and $75,000.
The recent Deutsche Bank survey conducted between January 15-19, 2024, involving 2,000 respondents from the US, UK and Eurozone, revealed a rather pessimistic outlook for the price of Bitcoin. The findings show that over a third of respondents believe that the value of Bitcoin could fall below $20,000 by the end of 2024. In contrast, around 15% of those surveyed held a more optimistic view, expecting that the price of Bitcoin could to stabilize between $40,000 and $75,000 by the end of the year.
This bearish sentiment among retail investors has been influenced by several factors, including the recent performance of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. After reaching a high of around $49,000 on January 11, 2024, driven by the excitement surrounding the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, the price of Bitcoin subsequently suffered a significant decline, falling to around $39,791. The analyst report of Deutsche Bank suggests that the introduction of new spot bitcoin ETFs could further institutionalize bitcoin, but the majority of ETF flows originate from retail investors.
The study also highlights broader concerns about the stability of the cryptocurrency market. More than half of those surveyed expressed fears of a major cryptocurrency crash in the next two years, likely fueled by incidents such as the 2022 crash of crypto exchange FTX and the collapse of stablecoin terraUSD (UST), coupled with continued regulatory crackdowns in the United States
In the context of Bitcoin ETFs, the market saw record outflows, particularly affecting Grayscale Investments’ Bitcoin Trust ETFs, despite overall positive trends since their inception. Industry experts and companies, including Tesla, remain bullish on BTC’s long-term outlook, anticipating significant capital inflows into the ETF.
These findings and market behavior reflect a cautious or skeptical approach to the future of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, amid regulatory uncertainty and past market problems. The survey also highlights a significant gap in cryptocurrency understanding, with two-thirds of consumers admitting they have little or no knowledge of the digital asset, which may contribute to cautious sentiment.
In summary, while the short-term outlook for Bitcoin looks bearish according to the survey, the long-term outlook, as suggested by industry experts and some corporate players, remains more optimistic.
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