Vitalik Buterin Highlights Polymarket’s Prediction on Ethereum’s Gas Fee Reduction

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Vitalik Buterin takes note of predictions of lowered Ethereum gas fees after EIP-4844, with market speculation suggesting major cost cuts.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin revealed on X (formerly Twitter) a Polymarket prediction that could signal a significant change in the network’s fee structure following the introduction of Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 4844. The prediction, a topic of intense discussion within of the Ethereum community, estimates a significant reduction in transaction costs, potentially reducing the price of data blocks (~125 kB) to under 0.001 ETH.

The current call data cost on Ethereum, estimated at approximately 0.06 ETH, taking gas and data size into account, is a significant obstacle to network scalability and user adoption. Polymarket’s speculative market, a barometer of public sentiment, shows that a significant portion of participants, 46%, predict that gas fees will fall between 0.0001 and 0.001 ETH per month after the implementation of EIP-4844. Another 24% believe it can be settled between 0.001 and 0.01 ETH.

Buterin’s mention serves as a reminder that these market projections, while speculative, provide an insight into community expectations and can be used as a hedging tool against the potential outcome of the EIP-4844 upgrade. The proposal is a key part of Ethereum’s ongoing efforts to improve its protocolwhich includes the long-awaited transition to Ethereum 2.0.

The reduction in gas fees provided by EIP-4844 could significantly increase the attractiveness of the network to developers by encouraging the proliferation of decentralized applications (dApps) and boosting overall network activity. It also reflects the broader goal of Ethereum’s upgrade path: to maintain its competitive edge as the leading smart contract blockchain in the face of growing alternatives offering lower transaction fees.

Investors and the Ethereum community are closely monitoring the development and eventual outcome of EIP-4844. The reduction in gas fees has been long sought and is expected to not only improve the user experience, but also potentially positively impact market sentiment around ETH.

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Despite the positive outlook, improvements of this magnitude come with inherent risks and uncertainties. Nonetheless, the community’s response to Buterin’s emphasis on Polymarket’s predictions shows overwhelming optimism about the proposal’s capacity to solve some of Ethereum’s most pressing gas fee challenges. As the upgrade looms on the horizon, all eyes will be on its real-world impact versus speculative projections.

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